What It Is About
The Biden administration has proposed a ceasefire deal aimed at addressing crucial security issues between Hamas and Israel. While there are secondary issues yet to be negotiated, the immediate focus remains on Israel’s strategy for dealing with Hamas.
Why It Matters
Israel has achieved substantial military victories against Hamas, dismantling much of its organized military capacity in Gaza. This has profound implications for both Israel’s security and the future governance of Gaza.
The Bigger Picture
Since October, Israel has effectively dismantled Hamas’s main military forces, leaving the terrorist organization fragmented and weakened. Significant areas like Rafah and Khan Yunis have been brought under control by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Despite this, the challenge remains in neutralizing Hamas’s influence as the political ruler of Gaza.
Destruction of Hamas
The IDF’s strategic operations have resulted in the breakdown of all 24 of Hamas’s battalions. Should IDF forces enter any part of Gaza now, they would face minimal organized resistance. This operational effectiveness underscores Israel’s capability to secure its borders and protect its citizens.
The Political Dimension
Despite military successes, Israel has yet to form a concrete plan to replace Hamas as the governing entity in Gaza. The Biden administration’s proposal leaves uncertain who will control Gaza post-Hamas disarmament. Israel’s past attempts to collaborate with local Gazan leaders were thwarted by Hamas, casting doubts on future efforts.
Hostage Negotiations
Hostage negotiations remain a critical aspect of the ceasefire. Initially, Israel was to secure the release of around 40 hostages in exchange for withdrawal from Gaza. The latest deal offers only 15-20 in the first phase, potentially leaving Hamas with leverage in ongoing negotiations.
Security Concerns
Israel faces a choice regarding territorial security. The potential to maintain a security zone around Gaza and control the Philadelphi Corridor is pivotal in preventing Hamas’s rearmament through Egypt. Negotiating these terms is crucial to ensuring long-term stability and security.
Conclusion
While the ceasefire appears problematic due to the complexities of Gaza’s governance and external pressures, Israel’s successful military operations have severely incapacitated Hamas. The challenge now lies in navigating the delicate balance of regional politics, hostages’ security, and future governance without compromising Israel’s long-term national security or international legitimacy.
This story was first published on jpost.com.