What It Is About
In a surprising turn of events, Syrian rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, seized the city of Aleppo from the Assad regime within 72 hours, capitalizing on recent geopolitical shifts in the region.
Why It Matters
This development illustrates a significant shift in power dynamics and reveals the vulnerabilities of the “Resistance Axis”. Israel’s strategic military operations against Hezbollah and Iran since October 8, 2023, have significantly weakened pro-Assad forces, paving the way for the weapons-light rebels to succeed where they had previously been stalled.
Details
Recent escalations in Syria’s northwest, perceived as violations of the 2019 ceasefire, have created an environment ripe for a rebel resurgence. Years of preparation by HTS and the weakening of Assad’s allies due to Israel’s effective military campaigns have culminated in this unexpected victory for the rebels.
Geopolitical Context
Israel’s targeted offensives against Hezbollah reduced the military manpower available to support Assad, illustrating Israel’s increasing strategic reach and impact in Middle Eastern conflicts. Iran, already diminished by Israeli raids and weakened economically, finds its influence eroding in Syria.
Expert Insight
Carmit Valensi of the Institute for National Security Studies notes the opportunistic nature of the rebel offensive, enabled by the weaknesses imposed on Hezbollah and Iran. With Russia also distracted by prolonged engagements in Ukraine, opposition groups like HTS have seized upon this timing.
Implications Moving Forward
The outcome in Aleppo suggests a weakened Iranian axis, portraying the success of Israeli strategies in constraining regional threats. Should Assad’s regime collapse, Israel must navigate the uncertain power vacuum that follows and secure its national interests. Israel remains vigilant and ready, placing emphasis on ensuring chemical weapons don’t fall into negative control or that the Golan Heights remain secure.
This story was first published on timesofisrael.com.