What It Is About
A recent poll by Channel 12 reveals that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party would secure the most seats in the Knesset if elections were held today. Despite this strong showing, Likud may face difficulties in forming a coalition government.
Why It Matters
The poll indicates Likud’s continued prominence in Israeli politics, but also underscores the challenges Netanyahu faces in securing a stable governing coalition. This situation reflects broader political dynamics and ongoing fragmentation within the Israeli political landscape.
By the Numbers
Likud is projected to win 25 seats, leading rival parties such as Benny Gantz’s National Unity with 21 seats, Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid with 15, Avigdor Liberman’s Israel Beytenu with 14, and Yair Golan’s Democrats with 11 seats.
The Ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, are poised to win 10 and 8 seats respectively, while Otzma Yehudit, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, would secure 6 seats. Arab-majority parties Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al would garner 5 seats each.
Political Dynamics
The survey, conducted before Gideon Sa’ar’s announcement to rejoin the government, shows that New Hope, Religious Zionism, and the Arab nationalist Balad party would not surpass the 3.25% electoral threshold.
Although Likud would technically win the election with Netanyahu at the helm, the right-wing, religious bloc would attain merely 49 seats against the Opposition’s 66 seats, which notably includes Ra’am but excludes Hadash-Ta’al. Excluding Ra’am, the opposition still secures a coalition-capable 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.
Potential Scenarios
If former prime minister Naftali Bennett returned to politics, Likud would remain the largest party at 23 seats, followed by Bennett’s hypothetical party at 20 seats and Gantz’s at 13.
Under such a scenario, the Netanyahu-led bloc would see a reduction to 46 seats, while a coalition including Bennett and existing Opposition factions (Yesh Atid, National Unity, The Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu) would expand to 69 seats, or 64 seats without the inclusion of the Islamist Ra’am party.
Leadership Approval Ratings
In leadership comparisons, Netanyahu is still deemed by respondents to be the most suitable for the role of prime minister over Gantz or Lapid, yet falls behind Bennett in this context.
Regarding reports that Netanyahu might fire Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and replace him with Sa’ar, 64% of respondents believe Gallant should remain in his post. Gallant’s approval rating at 58% surpasses Netanyahu’s at 43%. For now, Netanyahu has appointed Sa’ar as a minister without portfolio instead of replacing Gallant.
This story was first published on timesofisrael.com.