What it is about
Over 15 million Iranians cast their vote last Friday for Massoud Pezeshkian, a reformist candidate, who defeated his ultra-conservative rival Saeed Jalili in the presidential election.
Why it matters
The election outcome highlights the Iranian populace’s desire for change, even though the control largely remains with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The international community, including Israel and the U.S., remain wary of any significant policy shift under Pezeshkian’s leadership, especially regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional destabilizing activities.
U.S. and Israeli Reactions
The U.S. State Department quickly tempered expectations post-election. “We have no expectation that this election will lead to a fundamental change in Iran’s direction or its policies,” stated spokesman Matthew Miller, pointing out that Khamenei still wields ultimate authority. The US expressed skepticism about Pezeshkian’s capability to curb Iran’s nuclear program or its funding of terrorism.
Echoing a similar sentiment, Israel’s Foreign Ministry suggested the election’s outcome changes nothing, depicting images of Khamenei labeled “before” and “after” the election to emphasize their point of view.
Iranian Public Sentiment
Only about 40% of voters participated in the first round of elections, a historic low since the 1979 revolution’s triumph. However, turnout reached 50% during the run-off, driven more by fears of a Jalili victory rather than genuine belief in the reformist movement, according to Raz Zimmt, an Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “The vast majority of the public does not believe in the regime, and doesn’t believe in meaningful change,” he commented.
Impact on Policy and Regional Dynamics
Pezeshkian stands limited in foreign policy influence, which largely lies with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and Supreme Leader Khamenei. Despite his rhetoric of support for the “resistance of the people of the region against the illegitimate Zionist regime,” major policy remains unchanged unless dictated by Khamenei himself.
Nevertheless, Pezeshkian’s administration holds power within the executive branch, including management over the economy and appointing key ministers. There is a potential he may attempt to loosen internet restrictions and provide slight relief from hijab laws.
Future of Iran’s Nuclear Program
Key decisions concerning Iran’s nuclear ambitions rest solely with Khamenei, uncomplicated by executive figures such as the president. While Pezeshkian might advocate for diplomatic engagement with the U.S. and other international stakeholders, tangible progress depends on high-level authorizations.
As tensions rise over Iran’s advancements in uranium enrichment, Israel remains vigilant. Reports indicate Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has revitalized efforts to strategize handling Iran’s nuclear program, especially as Iran approaches a potentially weaponizable level of nuclear capacity. “Iran can threaten to take the final few steps to achieve a bomb more believably than anybody can threaten to stop it,” cautioned Jonathan Ruhe from the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.
This story was first published on timesofisrael.com.