What it is about
Seven months into a brutal conflict, Israel continues its efforts against Hamas in Gaza, unyielding in its fight despite Hamas’ regrouping and attack strategies.
Why it matters
Israel’s military operations are pivotal in ensuring the safety and security of its citizens. The conflict highlights the complexities of countering an adaptable insurgency within civilian infrastructures such as hospitals and schools. This demands negotiations and strategies, the outcome of which impacts both regional stability and global diplomatic relations.
Main Players
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet, including Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Benny Gantz, a key political rival, are deeply involved. Both demand clear post-war plans to avoid prolonged reoccupation or unilateral withdrawal, highlighting the complexity and high stakes of the situation.
The Current Situation
After powerful initial aerial strikes and ground operations leading to several tactical advances, Hamas has resumed rocket attacks, targeting bordering Israeli communities. Israel’s defense response continues in efforts to dismantle Hamas’ infrastructure and capability to inflict harm, under exceptionally challenging conditions that further involve managing Hamas combatants entrenched within civilian sectors, causing massive reconstruction needs afterward.
Public Sentiment and Strategic Concerns
Within Israeli leadership circles, there is significant debate over the post-war scenario. A complete reoccupation could entail immense costs, challenges in maintaining control, and humanitarian responsibilities to Gaza’s residents. The lighter occupation model, proposed by Netanyahu, seeks to combine security control with improved civil administration local entities to foster governance and rebuild the region, yet local cooperation poses a major obstacle.
Regional and International Dimensions
Potential contributions from Arab nations remain uncertain. Various conflicts of interest, including defense pacts and conditions for a Palestinian state, complicate international consensus on a unified course of action for Gaza’s future. Alternatively, suggestions for a “grand bargain” connecting broader normalization agreements across the Middle East, involve broader negotiations inclusive of US-Saudi diplomat interjections.
Future Possibilities
Full-Scale Military Occupation
Netanyahu asserts that total victory by removing Hamas could be quickly achieved through significant military intervention. However, complete removal might also necessitate long-term governance and significant generational change in Gaza, presenting high costs of maintaining a military presence sustainably.
Lighter Occupation Model
This strategy involves security primacy for Israel, delegating civil administration to non-combatant local Palestinians, with aid from Arab and other nation-states, subject to the rise of cooperative local leaderships, eliminating Hamas’s influence over facility management.
A Grand Bargain
Intended to resolve prolonged conflict leveraging regional alliances, this option suggests Palestinian Authority stewardship of Gaza supported by Arab and American cooperation for broader Middle East peace, conditional on Israeli-Palestinian state solutions assurances.
A Deal with Hamas
Setting a mutual understanding involving phased agreements, release of hostages or cessation of fighting to strategize period transformation – akin to the historical “hudna” – implies stabilizing engagements, contingent to condition-driven coexistence but maintaining defensive preparations for future conflicts to reaffirming security primacy.
This story was first published on timesofisrael.com.