What Happened
Israeli jets carried out major airstrikes across southern Lebanon on Monday, intensifying efforts to compel Hezbollah to cease its attacks on northern Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israel was successfully “destroying thousands of missiles and rockets aimed at Israeli cities and Israeli citizens.”
Why It Matters
The Israeli attacks aim to halt Hezbollah’s ongoing rocket and drone strikes on northern Israel, which have intensified in recent months. By dismantling Hezbollah’s missile capabilities now, Israel eyes a more strategic advantage in case a ground invasion becomes necessary. This is in response to Hezbollah’s support for Hamas and its disruptive incursions, which have inflicted significant casualties and structural damage over nearly a year of conflict.
The Bigger Picture
Prime Minister Netanyahu and other top officials, including Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and IDF Chief Herzi Halevi, have announced a “new phase” of the conflict. This escalation comes after successful operations, including a Friday airstrike that killed top Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil and other leaders of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force.
The Context
Recent weeks saw explosive attacks on Hezbollah communications devices across Lebanon, resulting in substantial civilian casualties. Although Lebanon has blamed Israel, the latter has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility. The aim is clear: to challenge Hezbollah’s infrastructure and weaken its tactical capabilities.
Strategic Implications
In moving to a more intense phase of operations against Hezbollah, Israeli leaders are considering even larger strikes on Hezbollah’s stronghold in southern Beirut. Future tactics might include targeting Lebanese state infrastructure, putting further pressure on Lebanon to control Hezbollah’s actions from within its borders.
Risk of Ground Invasion
Should airstrikes fail to deter Hezbollah’s aggressive stance, a ground invasion becomes a potential scenario. The recent crippling of Hezbollah’s communication systems serves as a precursor, intended to disrupt their operational coordination, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of a possible ground operation.
International Reactions
Efforts from the Biden administration seek to de-escalate the tensions diplomatically, urging Hezbollah towards a ceasefire. However, Iran’s influence remains pivotal. US warnings following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh suggest Iran’s restraint to avoid direct conflict. Yet, Tehran continues to back Hezbollah’s actions, choosing indirect engagement to bleed Israel while avoiding direct retaliation.
Looking Ahead
Ultimately, the conflict’s escalation or resolution lies in leadership decisions from Hassan Nasrallah. Should Hezbollah persist in its current path of aggression, it faces increasingly severe retaliation from Israel, which may culminate in an all-out ground invasion, fundamentally altering the dynamics in the region.
This story was first published on timesofisrael.com.