What’s happening:

An internal poll among members of Israel’s Likud party reveals strong support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with 70% backing his leadership. However, this support could waver if Netanyahu opts for early elections.

Why it matters:

As Prime Minister, Netanyahu’s position appears secure within his party, reflecting a low probability of internal upheaval. Yet, this allegiance is contingent upon his political strategy, particularly the timing of elections, showcasing the nuanced dynamics within Likud.

Broader electoral challenges:

Outside the Likud party, the political landscape presents challenges. A recent Maariv poll indicates that if elections were held following the October 7 Hamas attacks, the Likud Party would fall significantly behind Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party, with a projected gap of 22 seats and the opposition gaining a substantial majority.

The context:

Two months preceding the Hamas attacks, a similar poll suggested a trend where Gantz’s party would outperform Likud in the upcoming 2026 elections. Despite Likud’s higher projected seat count in August compared to October, the opposition still held an advantage.

Takeaway:

While Netanyahu’s leadership within Likud remains solid, his decision-making on election timing is crucial. With external pressure from opposition parties, the Prime Minister’s strategies will be pivotal in maintaining Likud’s position and his own political future.

This story was first published on jpost.com.