What’s New:
Col. (res.) Miri Eisin, an Israeli geopolitics and regional security expert, raised concerns about the potential of a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah. Despite Israel’s preparedness, the scale of the threat posed by Hezbollah’s military capabilities is considerable and a peaceful resolution seems unlikely.
Why It Matters:
Hezbollah, with its significant stockpile of advanced weaponry, poses a threat not only to Israel’s security but also to regional stability. The possibility of a full-scale conflict could lead to widespread devastation and disruption, particularly in the already fragile context of Lebanese internal politics and economy.
Hezbollah’s Military Strength:
According to Eisin, Hezbollah’s military strength substantially surpasses that of Hamas, with capabilities that include thousands of trained operatives, anti-tank guided missiles, suicide drones, various unmanned aerial vehicles, and a massive arsenal of rockets and missiles, some with precision-guiding technology.
Israel’s Preparedness:
Israel has been preparing to counter Hezbollah’s abilities for over a decade, conducting preemptive strikes and bolstering its defensive measures. The challenge, as Eisin notes, is ‘very big’ but Israel remains vigilant and capable of engaging in both preventative and retaliatory actions.
Diplomatic Deadlock:
Eisin expresses skepticism about the feasibility of a political solution that would see Hezbollah retreat north to the Litani River. She doubts the commitment and reliability of Hezbollah and questions which forces could ensure such a withdrawal.
Implications for Lebanon:
The prospect of war is especially concerning given Lebanon’s current economic collapse. A conflict would exacerbate the nation’s dire situation, where the government already struggles with internal challenges and is unable to contain Hezbollah’s influence.
Lebanese Leadership and Hezbollah:
Lebanon’s complex political landscape, featuring a significant Shiite population that politically supports Hezbollah, complicates any international diplomatic efforts. The Lebanese government’s control over Hezbollah is limited, leaving Israel and the international community with few options to neutralize the group’s military threat peacefully.
Risk of Miscalculation:
As daily exchanges of fire occur along the Israel-Lebanon border, the risk of an accidental escalation into a broader conflict is a constant concern. Any miscalculation could trigger a heavy response from either side, potentially drawing both into a more extensive and destructive confrontation.
The Bottom Line:
Despite potential international diplomatic efforts, the likelihood of a peaceful resolution with Hezbollah remains low, and the threat of an all-out war persists. Israel remains on high alert, aware of the gravity of Hezbollah’s capabilities and the implications for regional security.
This story was first published on jpost.com.