What It Is About
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened dire consequences if Israel escalates the conflict, but these threats indicate a state of desperation rather than confidence. The ongoing war has placed significant strain on Hezbollah, showing that its strategic position has become increasingly precarious.
Why It Matters
This insight highlights both the internal and external challenges faced by Hezbollah and its primary backer, Iran. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for assessing the potential outcomes of the conflict and the future stability of the region.
Recent Threats Reflect Hysteria
Hassan Nasrallah recently warned that Hezbollah would respond to an Israeli assault by conquering the Galilee and launching attacks beyond Israel’s borders. However, these statements reveal more about Hezbollah’s desperation. Iran, understanding the potential devastation of an all-out war, recognizes that Israel’s military might still poses a severe threat, which could dismantle Hezbollah.
The Trigger of October 7
The attack on October 7 by Yahya Sinwar, initiated without Tehran’s and Beirut’s coordination, caught leaders Ayatollah Khamenei and Nasrallah by surprise. Sinwar’s unilateral decision forced Hezbollah into the broader conflict due to prior informal assurances of support he received in early 2023. This move left Iran and Hezbollah with no alternative but to engage.
Controlling Hezbollah’s Involvement
Despite his pledges of continued militant actions, Nasrallah has been strategically limiting Hezbollah’s engagement, leading to criticism within the Muslim world. This reputational damage has pressured Iran to seek broader international intervention, hoping to de-escalate the situation politically without further weakening its position.
Dreaming of a Ceasefire
Amid the prolonged conflict, Nasrallah is finding the ongoing battle increasingly burdensome and is reportedly longing for a ceasefire. Tehran, on the other hand, is inclined towards prolonging the fight, seeing it as a means to further deplete Israeli resources and morale.
Path to Peace
A pathway to a comprehensive ceasefire agreement necessitates synchronized action by Israel and the United States. Convincing Nasrallah and ensuring permanent security involve Israel potentially threatening a full-scale war which, backed by American support, might force Hezbollah to retreat. Ultimately, lasting peace in northern Israel will require a sustained commitment by the IDF and the unwavering resolve of Israel’s leadership to prevent Hezbollah’s re-entry to the border region.
Security and Responsibility
For any ceasefire to be lasting, a joint Israeli-American approach will be essential to enforce compliance with Security Council Resolution 1701. Furthermore, ensuring displaced Israelis can return to their homes with improved safety measures will be a critical step. Renewed vigilance and readiness from Israel’s government and military are paramount to ensuring long-term security and stability in the region.
Author’s Credentials
The article’s author, Amatzia Baram, is a Professor Emeritus at the University of Haifa.
This story was first published on jpost.com.