What Happened in Sunday’s Second Round Vote?
The New Popular Front (NFP) alliance, a coalition of left-wing parties, appeared set to win the largest number of seats in France’s parliamentary elections. However, it will fall short of the 289 needed for an outright majority in the lower house. The results also marked a significant setback for the far-right National Rally (RN) party. Surprisingly, RN had been initially projected to win the vote but was outmaneuvered as NFP and President Emmanuel Macron’s Together bloc united to counter the far-right threat. Projections show RN finishing in third place, trailing behind Together. With no clear majority, France faces a complicated path ahead in forming a stable government.
Why It Matters
This election outcome presents a unique challenge for French democracy as no major bloc holds the absolute majority required to govern unilaterally. This raises questions about the stability and direction of France’s government and affects the nation’s ability to pass legislation effectively. In the meantime, Israel continues to observe this European political climate closely, given the importance of international ties and regional stability in global politics. France’s political direction can influence its stance on important issues concerning Israel.
Will a Left-Leaning Coalition Form?
The prospect of a cohesive left-leaning coalition remains uncertain. France’s political tradition does not favor coalition-building, distinguishing it from other European democracies. Initiated by Charles de Gaulle, the French Fifth Republic was designed for strong presidential dominance, generally avoiding the consensus politics seen in countries like Germany or the Netherlands.
Moderate left-wing politician Raphael Glucksmann urged for responsible governance, advocating for political maturity. Yet, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the hard-left France Unbowed, rejected an alliance with Macron’s centrists, demanding that Macron ask the leftist alliance to rule. Macro’s party leader, as well as former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, also negated collaborations with Mélenchon’s faction.
Macron awaits the final alignment of the new assembly before determining his approach, illustrating the ambiguity currently within French politics.
What If No Agreement Can Be Found?
France may tread uncharted waters if no agreement is established. The constitution restricts Macron from calling a new parliamentary election for another year. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his intention to resign but remains open to serving in a caretaker capacity.
Macron holds the power to choose a government formateur, but the appointee faces a crucial confidence vote. Macron might aim to separate Socialists and Greens from the New Popular Front, striving for a center-left coalition. Meanwhile, the structural dynamics of the left-wing bloc remain steadfast, complicating this potential coalition.
If coalition-building proves infeasible, France might have to consider a technocratic government, managing day-to-day operations without enacting significant reforms. Yet, this temporary governance method would still demand partial parliament support, maintaining the avenue of political contention.
This story was first published on timesofisrael.com.