What’s happening:

Saudi Arabia confirms its ongoing interest in a breakthrough normalization deal with Israel despite recent conflicts, with continuous backing from the US.

Why it matters:

The potential Israeli-Saudi detente signals a geopolitical shift which could pave the way for broader Middle East peace and balance against regional adversarial forces, even as conflicts between Israel and Hamas cast a shadow on the negotiation proceedings.

The back-and-forth:

Despite tensions in the region, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the UK and US and Israeli leaders express that a normalization deal remains within grasp. However, the commitments required from Israel are becoming increasingly substantial due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.

Price of Peace:

The implications of the latest Gaza conflict have raised the stakes for Israel in terms of what’s expected to be included in any normalization agreement, notably regarding Palestinian statehood and governance in Gaza.

US Influence and Timelines:

While the US leverages normalization as means to restore dialogue for a final status negotiation between Israel and the Palestinians, there is skepticism surrounding the current Israeli administration’s readiness to commit to conditions considered essential for progression.

Expert Insight:

Hussein Ibish of the Arab Gulf States Institute suggests that even a partial de-escalation in Gaza might suffice to advance talks between Isareal and Saudi Arabia. However, Israel may need to adopt a clear stance supporting Palestinian statehood to meet the Saudi expectations.

The Bigger Picture:

Beyond immediate peace, this normalization – subject to stringent conditions on Israel due to recent conflict casualties – has deeper implications for regional dynamics, particularly with respect to Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the position of Abraham Accords signatories maintaining ties with Israel.

This story was first published on timesofisrael.com.