What’s happening:
Israel’s military, after a period of significant operations against Hamas, is reportedly moving to a less intensive phase of conflict, termed “stage 3”, which involves fewer ground operations and focuses on raids and remote attacks. This strategic shift, while coming after considerable disruption to Hamas’s capabilities, may allow the group to rebuild its military infrastructure in Gaza.
Why it matters:
This development is pivotal as it raises concerns among military analysts and experts that Hamas could leverage the reduced Israeli military presence to regain strength. While Israel’s goal remains to nullify Hamas as a military threat, the latest tactical changes could inadvertently provide Hamas with the time needed to reorganize and prepare anew.
By the numbers:
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have had successes, significantly reducing rocket fire from Gaza and capturing key Hamas facilities. An Israeli-led ground invasion has seen the dismantlement of much of Hamas’s military infrastructure. However, the day-to-day rocket attacks have decreased to minimal levels, suggesting a transition to more strategic operations.
What’s next:
Israeli officials are debating over potential governance solutions for Gaza post-conflict, including military administration or a Palestinian Authority-led government. Prime Minister Netanyahu asserts that demilitarization is inevitable and that Israel will retain control. Meanwhile, IDF brigades are being released from active duty as the shift to “stage 3” progresses.
Yes, but:
Despite Israel’s achievements, leading Hamas figures remain at large, and numerous hostages are yet to be recovered. This, combined with the group’s likely ability to reinstate a chain of command following losses, poses a strategic challenge to Israel’s long-term objectives.
The bottom line:
While Israel appears set to continue dominating militarily, the ultimate strategic goal of decisively defeating Hamas both militarily and politically seems increasingly complex. As the conflict endures, the opportunity for Hamas to regroup becomes more substantial, complicating Israel’s path to a conclusive victory.
This story was first published on jpost.com.