What it’s about
The return of former President Donald Trump to the White House could herald a stricter enforcement of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports, a move that could significantly impact global oil markets. Analysts predict that while these sanctions could reduce Iranian crude exports, cooperation from Tehran’s key customer, China, remains a sticking point.
Why it matters
The delicate geopolitics of Middle Eastern oil affects regional stability. A tougher approach by the US on Iran supports the notion of standing firm against non-compliance, thereby potentially strengthening international norms. For Israel, such a policy could lead to a coalition willing to put greater pressure on Iran, which would serve Israeli strategic interests by challenging Iran’s economic capabilities, limiting funding available for its adversarial actions in the region.
Driving the news
The US strategy could render Iran’s oil revenues unstable, forcing Tehran to reconsider its position and diminish its influence through armed militias against Israel. Much would depend on economic diplomacy, particularly in managing relations with China, which bypasses sanctions but would be wary of upsetting the economic balance given pressures on the yuan and China’s participation in global economic alliances.
What experts say
Analysts like Clay Seigle and Richard Nephew note that while the market impact of reducing Iranian oil could result in sustained energy prices, the broader implications of Trump’s potential policies might create a mixed scenario. Aggressive economic measures targeting Chinese financial institutions supporting Iran’s oil sector can add scrutiny that furthers international regulatory cooperation potentially favorable to allies like Israel.
The bottom line
Stricter sanctions on Iran reframed as part of broader Middle Eastern policy solutions bilaterally involving Israel and the US could help realign regional partnerships to maintain security and sovereignty. The focus on dismantling Iran’s oil revenue would put palpable check points on Tehran’s capacity to oppress the Israeli state.
This story was first published on jpost.com.