What’s new:
The United States government has officially accused an Iranian-backed group for the lethal drone strike that killed three US service members in Jordan. Tensions simmer as President Joe Biden deliberates on the United States’ response amid Iranian vows of a “decisive” counteraction to any US offensive. Air strikes in response have been insinuated by national security spokesperson John Kirby to not be “one-off” indicating further strategic strikes may be in play.
Why it matters:
This fatal attack not only heightens the stakes in the friction between Iran and the United States but also risks the stability in a region already disrupted by violence, including the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
By the numbers:
Since October 18th, there have been 166 assaults on American military installations by Iran-aligned militias, with 67 in Iraq, 98 in Syria, and one in Jordan, as per US military records.
On the ground:
The United States has conducted several counter-offensive air strikes targeting arsenal storage locations and facilities associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and their allied militias, aiming to diminish the potential threats posed by these entities.
Big picture:
The fear of escalation raises to a focal point as any additional US strikes could potentially ignite a broader conflict within the Middle East, already experiencing a surge in fighting. Iran has intensified its rhetoric and defense preparations, raising concerns about aviation and maritime safety, the latter underlining with ongoing clashes in the Red Sea corridor, a vital artery for global trade.
The response:
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby underscores that the US is not in pursuit of war with Iran but holds a firm posture regarding defense against continued attacks. Similarly, a stark warning issued by Iranian officials signals a readiness to retaliate against any perceived threats or attacks.
What’s ahead:
If the United States opts to carry out further military strikes in retaliation, the already fragile diplomacy in the region could fracture, propelling the region towards a wider war in an already explosively volatile geopolitical landscape.
This story was first published on timesofisrael.com.